5. Quebec Outlook
Snapshot
Quebec employers will experience significant challenges recruiting for jobs that require five or more years of experience. These challenges will be greater outside of the Montreal region owing to the comparatively smaller size of the experienced labour pool. Recruitment challenges will be especially difficult for companies that are seeking leading edge skills. Delays in filling these jobs will cause operational problems.
Recent graduates of co-op programs will generally be able to obtain employment commensurate with their training. However, graduates from traditional programs will experience much longer search periods. Many will be obliged to take ICT jobs for which they are over-qualified. Internationally educated professionals (IEPs) will experience similar difficulties.
Skills shortages will be more acute in three occupations:
- Computer and Information Systems Managers,
- Information Systems Analysts and Consultants,
- Broadcast Technicians.
The ICT industry is currently experiencing and will continue to experience significant challenges in recruiting Computer Programmers who have leading edge or highly specialized skills and can combine these technical skills with essential soft skills (most notably team working, communications and problem solving).
Towards the end of the forecast period, there is also a significant risk of shortages arising for
- Computer Engineers, and
- Electrical and Electronics Engineering Technologists and Technicians.
Technology trends (most notably the adoption of 'Cloud' computing) and off-shoring will weaken demand for:
- Computer Network technicians, and
- User Support Technicians
Skill shortages outside of the greater Montreal region will arise sooner and will be more acute owing to the smaller size of those labour markets.
Trends
Profile of ICT Employment:
Quebec accounts for approximately 23% of all workers in ICT Occupations.
Quebec has both a substantial ICT User Industry base and also an important ICT Producer Industry base. There are similarities in the skills needs of ICT Users and ICT Producers, but also important differences.
Quebec has a particularly notable presence in the development of applications for electronic gaming. Help desk operations (both in-house and outsourced) are attracted to Quebec by the province's supply of qualified and bilingual workers. The need to provide web services in both English and French also leads many companies and organizations to source some or all of their web support operations in Quebec. As a result, Quebec has become a significant exporter of ICT services to other regions of Canada, as well as to the United States.
Demand Trends:
Over the period 2011-2016, domestic spending on ICT will grow at a slower pace than during the five years prior to the downturn in 2008. Spending is projected to increase by approximately 3.6% annually. This compares with a 5.6% annual growth rate prior to the downturn. As a result, employment that is dependent on domestic ICT spending will grow more slowly over the next five years than prior to the downturn. In the labour market forecast, these trends are reflected in the intermediate ranking that applies to the majority of occupations.
Quebec-based ICT Producers that sell into the international market can anticipate a recovery in demand on par with the growth rates that preceded the downturn, but only if they have a presence in the Asian market. Over the period 2011 to 2016, the Asian market will account for around 43% of the world growth in ICT spending. Quebec-based ICT Producers that are reliant on the U.S. and European markets should anticipate a slower growth in demand, unless their technology enjoys unique competitive advantages.
R&D spending by the private sector is projected to increase by 1.0% to 2.0% annually in value terms. The commensurate annual employment will increase 1.0% or less. This will affect primarily the demand for Computer Engineers and Software Engineers who focus on system and application design.
Outsourcing, Off-shoring and Near-Shoring:
Domestic outsourcing of ICT work is projected to increase by approximately 5% per year over the next five years. The growth of near-shoring exports to the U.S, however, will be constrained by the appreciation of the Canadian dollar. Nevertheless, the employment generated by near-shoring work is expected to increase by 1.0 to 2.0% per year over the forecast period.
The profile of outsourced work will change over the forecast period. Some of the lower-value outsourced work that is currently undertaken in Quebec - notably Tier-1 'help desk' - is at risk of being displaced by off-shore resources or by the increased use of automated 'self-help' systems. The bilingual 'anchor' will reduce, but will not eliminate, the movement of help desk work to off-shore locations. Some lower-value programming work - 'commodity work' – also will migrate to off-shore centres. Higher value application support work and Tier 2 technical support will be largely unaffected by off-shoring trends.
Recruitment Conditions:
In general, employers will have little or no difficulty filling ICT jobs that require less than five years of experience. However, much more significant challenges will arise when recruiting for jobs that require five or more years of experience. These challenges will be more difficult outside of the Montreal region owing to the comparatively small size of the experienced labour pool from which employers can recruit and their difficulty in inducing job-seekers to relocate. Recruitment challenges will be especially difficult for companies that are seeking leading edge skills. These difficulties are likely to increase over the forecast period. Delays in filling these jobs will cause operational problems. Some employers will need to use Temporary Foreign Worker programs where those programs operate or nominee programs to recruit foreign ICT specialists with skills that cannot be sourced regionally.
Job hopping will not be a systemic problem. However, quitting for better opportunities will occur and turnover rates will increase over the forecast period.
Internationally educated professionals (IEPs) account for around 7.0 - 8.0% of workers in ICT Occupations. This compares with approximately 14% on a national basis. The occupations with the highest proportions of IEPs are Computer Engineers (14%) and Software Engineers (13%). Access to IEPs will reduce, but will not eliminate, the severity of skills shortages.
Skills shortages will be a serious challenge for both ICT Producers and ICT Users. For ICT Producers, the shortages will focus on Computer Programmers and Software Engineers with more than five years of experience, with proficiency in leading edge skills and with the ability to work in a team-based development environment. For ICT Users, the most serious shortages will focus on Computer and Information Systems Managers and Business Analysts.
Job-Seekers:
Recent graduates of co-op or internship programs will generally be able to obtain employment that is commensurate with their training. However, graduates from traditional programs that do not have a practicum component will experience much longer search periods. In many cases, they will be obliged to take ICT jobs for which they are over-qualified.
Recently arrived IEPs who have no Canadian experience will find it almost impossible to secure an ICT job commensurate with their qualifications, unless their French language skills are excellent. In the ICT Producer industries it is also important to have competence in English as most programming is done initially in English. To gain Canadian experience, most IEPs will need to consider jobs for which they are over-qualified.
Specific Occupations
Computer and Information Systems Managers:
Shortages of Computer and Information Systems Managers will be driven by demographic factors which will account for approximately 80% of the demand. The shortages will be most acute for positions that require ten years or more of previous managerial experience.
As noted, retirement is by far the most important determinant of hiring requirements. Hiring requirements could be brought forward, if the retirement rate before age 65 increases above projections. In some sectors, notably the public sector and major utilities, the average age of managers tends to be higher and the need to replace retiring managers will occur earlier.
The labour market ranking for this occupation will move from 'Skill Shortages in Many Fields (Yellow)' in the first part of the forecast period to 'Excess of Demand over Supply: Pervasive Shortages (Orange)' in 2013. This reflects the cumulative impact of retirement factors.
Telecommunications Carriers Managers:
The overall labour market conditions for Telecommunications Carriers Managers correspond to the 'Skill Shortages in Many Fields (Yellow)' ranking. However, this ranking conflates two distinct trends. In the wired segment of the industry, employment growth will be slow. Demand for managers in the wired segment of the telecommunications industry will be determined almost entirely by replacement requirements. In the wireless segment of the industry, the growth in the user base and the entry of new suppliers will support increased demand. Employers in the wireless sector of the telecommunications industry will face more difficult hiring challenges.
Electrical and Electronics Engineers:
Electronics engineers are primarily employed in designing hardware applications. Spending on R&D is projected to grow more slowly over the next five years compared to the five years before the general economic downturn. The slower growth of R&D spending will constrain the employment growth of Electronics Engineers.
Labour market conditions are currently estimated to be weak, but will improve over the forecast period. After 2012, labour market conditions will correspond to the 'Skill Shortages in Many Fields (Yellow)' ranking. In these circumstances, recent graduates without co-op or internship experience will have difficulty finding employment. Employers will experience moderate to significant difficulties in recruiting Electronics Engineers with five or more years of experience and with technology-specific experience. Employers seeking leading edge skills will have much more significant difficulty in meeting their needs.
Computer Engineers:
Demand for computer engineers also will be held back by the slowdown in R&D spending and by the lower rate of spending growth for ICT, especially for hardware. For most of the forecast period, labour market conditions will correspond to the 'Skill Shortages in Many Fields (Yellow)' ranking. Employers will encounter moderate to significant difficulties in recruiting computer engineers with five or more years of experience and with technology-specific experience. More serious shortage conditions are projected to arise towards the end of the forecast period. Employers seeking leading edge skills will have much more significant difficulty in meeting their needs especially towards the end of the forecast period.
Information Systems Analysts and Consultants (Business Analysts):
The continued penetration of ICT into new domains will increase the need for Information Systems Analysts and Consultants. The adoption of e-health technologies will be particularly important, although the ICT adoption trend is by no means limited to the health care sector.
Information Systems Analysts and Consultants require a mix of technical ICT skills and an understanding of the business and organizational processes of ICT Users. This mix of ICT technical skills and an understanding of business and organizational processes is in systemic short supply. The supply challenges are compounded by the additional factor that experience must be domain-specific. A Business Analyst with experience in one domain (e.g., supply chain management in the retail sector) is not readily deployable in another domain (e.g., the health care sector). In the labour market forecast, these supply challenges are evident in the skill shortages that are expected to be systemic from 2013 onwards. If spending on ICT projects accelerates before 2013, the shortage conditions will be brought forward.
The labour market ranking for Information Systems Analysts and Consultants will be 'Excess of Demand over Supply: Pervasive Shortages (Orange)' for most (or all) of the forecast period. In these circumstances, delays in filling jobs openings will be systemic and will cause operational problems. Some employers will find that it is impossible to recruit qualified candidates, especially outside of the greater Montreal area.
Database Analysts and Administrators:
Labour market conditions for Database Analysts and Administrators will generally gravitate to the 'Skill Shortages in Many Fields (Yellow)' ranking over the forecast period. Towards the end of the forecast period (2015), there may be a risk of tighter labour market conditions and more pervasive skills shortages. Three factors are supporting the demand for Database Analysts and Administrators: (i) an increase in replacement demand as a result of an increase in retirements, (ii) the increased use of databases to manage more aspects of business operations, and (iii) the increased use of data mining to identify marketing opportunities.
Domain-specific experience is a critical qualification for Database Analysts and Administrators. The need for domain-specific experience will increase the recruitment difficulties experienced by employers and draw out the job-search period for job-seekers. Legacy applications are particularly important in the database field. The skills required to maintain legacy applications are not being renewed.
Software Engineers and Designers:
Software design is highly internationalized. Some large developers maintain design centres in more than one country. The geographic location of design work is determined by a number of factors. These include the cost of skilled labour, business ownership and structure, and the availability of skills - especially advanced and specialized skills. Software Engineers have the highest proportion of workers with graduate degrees (27%) of all ICT Occupations. Employers' skills needs are highly granular. That is to say, when hiring Software Engineers, employers have highly specific experience and technology requirements. Meeting these needs is challenging in almost all circumstances.
For most of the forecast period, labour market conditions will correspond to the 'Skill Shortages in Many Fields (Yellow)' ranking. In these circumstances employers will experience moderate to significant difficulty in recruiting qualified candidates with relevant technology and business experience. Employers seeking leading edge skills will have much more significant difficulty in meeting their needs. Employers will sometimes need to make use of Temporary Foreign Workers or 'fast track' channels in the immigration system to meet their skill needs.
Computer Programmers and Interactive Media Developers:
In Quebec, the ICT labour market for Computer Programmers will be dominated by a widespread and serious mismatch between the skills and experience needed by employers and the skills and experience (or lack thereof) offered by a many job-seekers. This skills mismatch will be especially serious in the ICT Producer industries.
On the demand side three trends will weaken the demand for certain types of Computer Programmers. The first, and most important of these trends, will be the continuing migration of lower-value programming work to off-shore locations. The second trend of importance will be the increasing prominence of design strategies that reduce the amount of programming and application support required. Service-oriented architecture (SOA) is central to this trend. And finally, a third factor that will reduce the demand for certain types of programming skills is the general movement away from proprietary software applications to customized off-the-shelf applications. This includes Software-as-a-Service provided by Cloud services. The skills that are affected by these trends will be in decline over the forecast period.
At the same time, other trends in ICT will generate new (or continuing) skill requirements that employers will have difficulty meeting. Industry interviews indicate a general shortage of experienced Computer Programmers who can work in a java and SQL programming environment. As well, employers will continue to confront a shortage of qualified job-seekers who have experience in customizing and supporting particular applications in a specific domain context. The importance of domain experience compounds the challenge of meeting skill needs. As always, ICT Producers will need leading edge skills. And finally, recruiting Programmers who can support legacy applications will be an increasing challenge for the public sector and large employers in the private sector as Programmers with experience supporting these applications retire.
The result of these trends is that there will be an increasing misalignment between the skills and experience of job-seekers and the skills and experience that are required by employers.
Web Designers and Developers:
The extension of web applications to an increasing range of businesses and business operations will support moderate growth in demand for Web Designers and Developers. This growth, however, will be somewhat undercut by the trend to off-shore or automate some of the basic aspects of web design and web maintenance. However, the growth of mobile devices has generated a need to optimize existing sites for these devices. As well, the need for many Canadian web sites to be bilingual ensures a continuing market for Quebec-based web designers and maintainers.
The growing importance of web interfaces increases the importance of the aesthetic dimension ('the coolness') of user design. Employers seeking this additional skill will encounter pervasive shortages which will only be alleviated when more programs link traditional design skills with training in web development.
A notable feature of web design has been the increased technical sophistication of web sites. Web designs that were previously undertaken in HTML by the 'self-taught' have been replaced by automated templates. Customized web development now requires a greater level of technical skill, including the ability to program in range of platforms at both the server and the client level.
Electrical and Electronics Engineering Technologists and Technicians:
Demand for electrical and electronics engineering technologists and technicians is projected to increase moderately over the forecast period. The growth in demand will be supported by the increased application of ICT to various manufactured products and production processes but held back by slower overall economic growth.
It is important to distinguish between Electronics Engineering Technologists and Technicians and Electronics Engineers. Engineers are primarily employed in design functions. The key determinant of demand for Engineers, therefore, is new investment spending and R&D spending. Technicians and Technologists are primarily employed in operations functions and in maintenance and support functions. The key determinant of demand for Technicians and Technologists, therefore, is the growth in the installed base of electronics equipment and applications. Most electronics equipment and applications are proprietary. Consequently, many employers have formalized training for new hires. The forecasting model indicates that shortages could arise towards the end of the forecasting period. These shortages will be largely the result of cumulative replacement demand arising from retirements.
Computer Network Technicians:
Demand for Computer Network Technicians is projected to weaken over the forecast period, moving between 'Skill Shortages in Many Fields (Yellow)' and 'Excess of Supply over Demand (Green)'. This is a change from the period prior to the economic downturn when employment grew strongly. The change in labour market conditions will arise from the anticipated impact of 'Cloud' computing. As discussed earlier in this report, one of the important implications of 'Cloud' computing – noted in the OECD Information Technology Outlook, 2010 – is the reduction in physical infrastructure requirements and the consequent reduction in the employment of persons who maintain networks. The adoption of 'Cloud' computing is not a certainty. However, the view taken in this report is that the economic attraction of 'Cloud' computing for User Industries is so strong that the economic incentives will drive its adoption over the forecast period. A related trend relevant to Computer Network Technicians is the increased importance of integrating wired networks with wireless networks. This trend also implies new skill needs beyond the traditional core of technical skills.
User Support Technicians:
The demand for User Support Technicians is projected to be weaker over much of the forecast period, corresponding to 'Excess of Supply over Demand (Green)' in the rankings used for the projection system. The primary reason for this trend is that, 'Tier 1 Help Desk' work will migrate increasingly to off-shore locations. 'Tier 2' and 'Tier 3' user support will be largely immune to this trend. 'Tier 3' Support Technicians typically hold industry certifications in addition to a post-secondary qualification. Notwithstanding the general excess of supply over demand, employers outside of the greater Montreal may encounter difficulty in recruiting persons with industry certifications in addition to their post-secondary qualifications.
Systems Testing Technicians:
Demand for Systems Testing Technicians will increase moderately over the forecast period in tandem with the increased penetration of ICT into other domains in business and the public sector. The decline in demand in 2010, which is projected to continue into 2011, is attributable to the downturn in hardware spending. This is projected to recover by 2012. The implementation of e-health systems will increase the demand for reliability testing as will concerns about liability from malfunctioning systems.
Broadcast Technicians:
The need for Broadcast Technicians is driven by two factors – retirements and an expansion of the broadcast industry. The growing penetration of fibre optic cabling and the integration of broadcasting with telecom and the internet will also alter the skills profile required by employers. Pervasive shortages are expected to arise over the course of the forecast period.